Revlimid f/u
Well, as you now know, Revlimid was recommended for approval. This is great news for patients who suffer from transfusion-dependent MDS and for related hematological conditions, for which the drug will be quickly adopted off-label (e.g. AML resistant to first-line and second-line treatment). I believe the drug to be effective for these conditions. I mentioned that I held a position in CELG prior to the ODAC meeting and so refused to provide my assessment of Celgene’s NDA package prior to the meeting. As it happens, I liquidated my position prior to the meeting, because I reasoned that a negative vote would be disastrous for the stock and was not sure that a close vote would not also result in a sell-off. My assessment of the NDA package as reflected in the briefing document was that a close or negative vote was a distinct possibility, given the totality of the data and FDA’s interpretation of it. The vote for approval was split, but the stock reacted in a mildly favorable way. In any case, this gives you an idea how I weigh benefits and risks when I hold positions I don’t mind liquidating. I could have also written a covered call option on the CELG position as a way to hedge if I had wanted to avoid liquidation (e.g. if I believed the upside to be large; if I held a large position; if I held a large position in a taxable account that was about to become long-term and thus receive favorable capital gains treatment).
